In the final game of the NFL season, two AFC South divisional rivals go head to head for a playoff spot.
The Colts have won 3 straight, most recently in a 28-27 win over the Giants. In week 14, they beat the Texans 24-21 and in week 15 they blanked the Cowboys 23-0.
The Titans are riding a 4 game winning streak, most recently beating the Redskins 25-16. In week 14, they beat the Jaguars 30-6, and in week 15 they blanked the Giants 17-0.
Intertops has the Colts as 3.5 point favourites with an O/U total of 43.
(9-6 overall, 3-4 on the road)
The Colts offense has been pretty solid this season, outside of a few hiccups. Andrew Luck has been phenomenal, throwing for 4308 yards, 36 TDs and 14 INTs while completing 67.2% of his passes and averaging 7.1 YPA. T.Y. Hilton is his top target, catching 74 balls for 1209 yards and 6 TDs, while Eric Ebron has been a touchdown machine with 62 catches for 690 yards and 12 TDs. Marlon Mack has come on down the stretch this season, rushing 170 times for 789 yards and 8 TDs.
The Colts scoring defense ranks above average, allowing 21.8 PPG. Their passing defense ranks middle of the pack allowing 242.7 yards per game and 20 TDs through the air while their pass rush ranks middle of the pack with 38 sacks. Their run defense ranks top 10 allowing 102.2 yards per game and 12 TDs on the ground. Their defense has forced 23 turnovers and as a team they own a +1 turnover differential.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
CB Quincy Wilson (calf) – questionable, WR T.Y. Hilton (ankle) – questionable, WR Dontrelle Inman (shoulder) – questionable
(9-6 overall, 6-1 at home)
The Titans offense is not stellar by any means, but they have gotten the job done in recent weeks. They are hopeful Marcus Mariota plays, as he has thrown for 2528 yards, 11 TDs and 8 INTs on the year while completing 68.9% of his passes and averaging 7.6 YPA. Corey Davis leads them in receiving with 60 catches for 843 yards and 4 TDs, while Dion Lewis (56/377/1), Taywan Taylor (35/458/1), and Tajae Sharp (26/316/2) are featured as well. Derrick Henry has asserted himself as the lead back, rushing 199 times for 966 yards and 12 TDs, while Dion Lewis (155/517/1) and Marcus Mariota (64/357/2) supplement him.
The Titans scoring defense ranks 2nd, allowing 18 PPG. Their pass defense ranks top 10, allowing 212.9 yards per game and 18 TDs through the air while their pass rush ranks middle of the pack with 38 sacks. Their run defense ranks above average allowing 113.7 yards per game and 8 TDs on the ground. Their defense has forced 15 turnovers, and as a team they own an even turnover differential.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
QB Marcus Mariota (neck) – questionable, WR Corey Davis (hamstring) – questionable, DT Jurrell Casey (knee) – placed on IR
In what is essentially a playoff game, you have to think we’re going to get the best from both of these teams. Andrew Luck thrives in this type of environment, and although the Titans defense is a top unit, Luck should be in peak shape as he tries to once again carry this Colts team into the postseason. The Titans lack an impactful pass rush, and Luck should have plenty of time behind his solid O line to pick apart the Titans secondary. Marlon Mack should be able to move the ball enough on the ground the keep the Titans honest.
The Titans offense has really been subpar outside of Derrick Henry, and without Marcus Mariota (if he doesn’t play) they will really struggle. The Colts run defense is pretty solid, and Darius Leonard and the Colts front 7 will step up to the challenge of reigning in Henry. The Titans lack playmakers in the receiving game, and if the Colts get a bit of a lead the Titans will be in trouble. The Colts are the more well rounded team, and have better coaching and a better quarterback. In a game like this, those things really come to light.
Final Pick: Colts (-3.5)